Accident severity analysis using ordered probit model

To reduce injuries in road crashes, better understanding is needed between the relationship of injury severity and risk factors. This study seeks to identify the contributing factors affecting crash severity with broad considerations of driver characteristics, roadway features, vehicle types, pedestrian characteristics and crash characteristics using an ordered probit model. It also explores how the interaction of these factors will affect accident severity risk. Three types of accidents were investigated: two-vehicle crashes, single vehicle crashes and pedestrian accidents. The reported crash data in Singapore from 1992 to 2001 were used to illustrate the process of parameter estimation. Several factors such as vehicle type, road type, collision type, location type, pedestrian age, time of day of accident occurrence were found to be significantly associated with injury severity. It was also found that injury severity decreases over time for the three types of accident investigated.