基于OD反推技术的城市新建高等级道路交通量预测方法--以镇江市长江隧道为例

随着新一轮路网调整工作在各个城市开展，隧道、高架类型的城市高等级道路建设数量不断增多，由于这些高等级道路的建设造价较大，因此在初期决策阶段需要对这些道路的交通量进行快速、准确的预测以便为决策者及规划者提供直观的评价依据。然而传统的“四阶段”方法耗时耗力，无法满足该项工作需要。鉴于此，结合镇江市长江隧道交通量预测，对基于OD反推技术的城市新建高等级道路交通量预测方法进行了介绍，并对其预测结果与传统“四阶段”法进行了对比分析。

Traffic Volume Forecasting Method for Urban High Grade Road Based on OD-Matrix Estimation Model:A Case Study of Yangtze River Tunnel in Zhenjiang

With the beginning of a new round of city road network adjustment, the number of high grade road construction, such as tunnel and elevated, is growing. It is important for policy makers to get the pre-dicted traffic volume of the new road quickly and accurately during the early stages of the decision-mak-ing because it is a costly project. However, the traditional four-stage method is time-consuming, unable to meet the job needs. The article introduced the method of traffic forecasting for urban high grade road based on OD-matrix Estimation Model, and its result was compared with the result of four-stage method combined with the case of Yangtze River tunnel in zhenjiang.