| 短时交通流量预测在最优路径选择中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 章秉川,李斌兵,刘大伟,张淑辉.短时交通流量预测在最优路径选择中的应用[J].城市公共交通,2011(2):48-51. |
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| 作者姓名： | 章秉川 李斌兵 刘大伟 张淑辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 章秉川,Zhang Bingchuan(武警工程学院,研究生36队,西安,710086);李斌兵,刘大伟,张淑辉,Li Binbing,Liu Dawei,Zhang Shuhui(武警工程学院,基础部,西安,710086) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对短时交通流量在部队选择最优开进路线时的影响,本文对影响路径诱导的短时交通流量预测算法进行研究,运用基于灰色理论和马尔可夫链的组合预测算法,对某市一条主干道的短时交通流量进行了预测.结果表明,组合预测算法具有更好的预测精度,相对误差为8.768%.能够满足部队选择最优开进路线的时限要求.
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| 关 键 词： | 路径诱导系统 短时交通流量预测 ArcGIS网络分析 |
Application of short-term traffic flow forecast in selecting the optimal route |
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| Zhang Bingchuan,Li Binbing,Liu Dawei,Zhang Shuhui.Application of short-term traffic flow forecast in selecting the optimal route[J].Urban Public Transport,2011(2):48-51. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Bingchuan Li Binbing Liu Dawei Zhang Shuhui |
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| Institution: | 1.Dept. of Postgraduates 2.Basic Dept. Engineering College of CAPF, Xi＇an, 710086,China) |
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| Abstract: | According to the effect of short-term traffic-flow in the choice of Force＇s optimal maneuver route, this paper primarily analyzes the short-term traffic flow forecast arithmetic, and then selects one combined forecast arithmetic based on the Grey Theory and Markov Chain. After forecasting one major road＇s short-term traffic-flow and implementing in one example, it indicates that the combined arithmetic has better prediction accuracy with relative error of 8.768%, satisfying the time limit requirement in the Force＇s optimal maneuver route choice. |
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| Keywords: | Path Guidance System Short-term Traffic Flow Forecast ArcGIS Network Analyst |
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