| 城市货运量的灰色Verhulst预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 石树新,王花兰. 城市货运量的灰色Verhulst预测模型[J]. 交通科技与经济, 2007, 9(1): 88-90,109 |
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| 作者姓名： | 石树新 王花兰 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学,交通运输工程学院,甘肃,兰州,730070;兰州交通大学,交通运输工程学院,甘肃,兰州,730070 |
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| 摘 要： | 以研究城市货运量的预测方法为目的,为了提高城市货运量预测模型的预测精度,分析了GM(1,1)和Ver-hulst预测模型的特点,发现Verhulst预测模型更适用于城市货运量的预测,采用灰色Verhulst预测模型对城市货运量进行预测,通过比较GM(1,1)和Verhulst预测模型的结果可知后者具有较高的精度和可靠性,最后通过实例说明预测方法的可行性,为实际决策提供理论参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市货运 灰色预测 灰色Verhulst模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5696（2007）01-0088-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-08-28 |
Grey Verhulst predictive model for amount of urban freight |
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| SHI Shu-xin,WANG Hua-lan. Grey Verhulst predictive model for amount of urban freight[J]. Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications, 2007, 9(1): 88-90,109 |
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| Authors: | SHI Shu-xin WANG Hua-lan |
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| Affiliation: | College of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China |
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| Abstract: | It presents the predictive methods of urban freight in order to improve the predictive precision of models on urban freight. The properties of GM(1,1) model and grey Verhulst model analyzed. Finding out that the grey Verhulst model is more are adaptable to the predictive amount of urban freight, it applies the grey Verhulst model, with are more precise and more reliable of grey Verhulst through compare GM(1,1) model and grey Verhulst model. Finally,the predictive methods prove to be feasible through the examples. |
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| Keywords: | urban freight grey prediction grey Verhulst model |
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