基于完全分解模型的综合运输系统 能耗影响因素研究

随着工业化和城市化程度的提高，交通与能源矛盾日益突出.现有研究认为运 输业能源消耗与运输量、能源消耗强度有关，然而忽视了综合运输系统结构对能源消耗 的影响.为了解综合运输系统能耗与运输量、能耗强度、运输系统结构三者的定性与定量 关系，找出综合运输系统能耗快速增长的真正推动因素，本文以综合运输系统为研究对 象，建立基于完全分解的综合运输系统能耗影响分析模型，将能耗的影响因素分解成系 统结构、运输量、能源消耗强度三大因子，并对1995–2011 年的统计数据进行实例计算.研 究发现，运输量的大量增加是运输业能耗显著增加的主要因素.但值得关注的是，运输结 构对能源消耗的影响日益突出.所以，我国进一步构建综合运输系统时，应当做好各种运 输方式在能耗方面的优势比较及合理的整体发展规划，使得各种运输方式协调发展.应该 大力发展能源消耗率低且对环境影响小的铁路和水路运输.

Influencing Factors of Energy Consumption for Integrated Transportation System Based on Complete Decomposition Model

The contradiction between transportation and energy increased with the development of industrialization and urbanization. Current research indicates that energy consumption of transportation are related with traffic volume and energy consumption intensity, however, neglecting impaction of system structure of integrated transportation. This paper takes the integrated transportation system as a research object, and the complete decomposition model is built up. The influencing factors of energy consumption is divided into three parts, traffic volume, energy consumption intensity and system structure of integrated transportation. A calculation example is gave based on the statistical data of 1995–2011, to discuss thequalitative and quantitative relationship between energy consumption of transportation and its influencing factors, and find out the main promotion factor that effects energy consumption increasing. By analyzing the data，we can draw the conclusion that the energy consumption of transportation increase significantly with the increase of traffic volume. But it is necessary to point out that the effects of transport structure become more and more outstanding. Therefore, when government constructing integrated transportation system, should analysis comparative advantage energy consumption of each transportation ways and make the whole developing planning to realize the coordination of transport modes. In particular, should greatly develop transportation of railway and waterway which are low energy consumption and little effect on environment.