基于离散选择理论的出行方式/目的地联合模型研究

分析了出行方式/目的地选择的必要性,并以合肥市居民出行调查数据为基础,在对出行目的地空间分布特点进行分析的基础上,提出了减少选择枝个数的目的小区分段抽样策略,并在该抽样策略下建立了方式/目的地联合选择模型,模型结果在数学统计和符号逻辑上均达到要求;最后对联合选择模型和重力模型就本案例数据进行了对比分析,结果表明,联合选择模型及结果与实际统计结果差值更小。

Mode and Destination Combined Model Based on Discrete Choice Theory

The necessity for mode and destination combined modeling approach is expounded first.Based on the Hefei travel research data,the tour destination spatial distribution character is analyzed and the stratified sampling method is applied to help reducing huge number of alternative set to a tractable one.And based on the sampling strategy,a mode and destination combined model is established and the estimation results shows that the model is up to the statistic test and logic test requirements.The forecast capability of the model is tested and compared with that of the gravity mode at last,and the results shows that the mode and destination combined model is more powerful for predicting.