基于出行时耗预算的交通需求预测方法

由于传统交通需求模型不能适当地反映交通系统拥挤程度对居民出行的影响，引入出行时耗预算的概念（即个人每天出行花费的时间保持相对稳定），探讨了在交通需求预测中考虑出行时耗预算的方法。以引入反馈机制的四阶段需求模型为基础，提出带有在线出行时耗参数标定的反馈机制。通过将预测流程中出行分布阶段构造为一个优化问题，以此估计出行OD（Origin-Destination）矩阵和出行时耗参数。带有在线出行时耗参数标定的反馈机制不仅克服了传统四阶段需求模型出行阻尼不一致问题，而且可以保证每次循环及最终输出的OD矩阵满足出行时耗预算的约束条件。在南阳市交通需求分析模型中的测试证实了其有效性。

Travel Demand Forecasting Methods with the Consideration of Travel Time Budget

As the traditional travel demand model can not reflect the effects of traffic jam on travel appropriatly, the concept of a travel time budget (i.e. the idea that an individuals' average daily travel time tends to be relatively constant) has been widely accepted. Methods that incorporate travel time budget constraints in the travel demand forecasting process is explored. Based on the four-step demand model with a feedback loop, a feedback mechanism with on-line travel time parameter calibration is proposed. ...