我国交通安全预测与分析

针对目前我国严峻的交通安全问题，根据1983年以来交通系统人一车一路中相关数据按照多元统计方法建立了我国交通安全模型，揭示出交通安全中交通事故发生量、死亡人数同驾驶员人数、汽车保有量、公路里程、GDP之间的定量关系，分析了影响交通安全的其他因素，预测出未来我国交通事故先增加后减少以及交通事故死亡人数下降的趋势，并对预测结果进行了相应分析．

National Traffic Safety Prediction and Analysis

Aiming at the austere problem of national traffic safety, traffic safety model has been created following the multivariate statistics method based on the relative data of people-vehicle-road in traffic system since 1983. The model discovers the quantitative relation among the traffic accident generating capacity, the traffic accident death with the number of drivers, the number of vehicles, highway mileage and GDP. Meanwhile, the other factors influencing the traffic safety are analyzed, and the tendencies that traffic accident taking place will decrease after an increase, and then, that traffic accident death will decrease are given. At last, an analysis for the result of prediction is made in the paper.