地震灾害影响下的公路网可靠度模型研究

通过分析地震灾害下公路网的破坏形式和地震灾害对公路网的损害机理，研究地震烈度、地震等级、震中距和地质条件等影响因素与公路网可靠性的关系，并对其进行量化，计算出地震灾害影响下公路网最易受损的桥梁单元和边坡单元的连通概率。在此基础上，研究地震灾害下区域内任意2点之间的路径可靠度、OD对间的出行可靠度和反映区域路网总体情况的网络可靠度的计算方法，建立地震灾害影响下的公路网可靠度模型。该模型可用于地震灾区公路网的结构优化，对区域公路网应急救援规划及灾区公路重建等具有重要参考价值。

Research on Reliability Model of Highway Networks Influenced by Earthquake Disasters

Based on failure modes of highway network influenced by earthquake disasters and damage mechanisms of earthquake disasters to highway networks, this paper studies the relations between influence factors including seismic intensity, earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance and geological conditions, etc. and the reliability of highway networks, and quantifies them to calculated the probability of connection between bridge units and side slope units most vulnerable to damage in highway networks under influence of earthquake disasters. On this basis the paper researches the calculation methods for route reliability between any two points in the area, travel reliability between OD pairs and network reliability reflecting general conditions of area networks under influence of earthquake disasters, and establishes the reliability model of highway networks under influence of earthquake disasters. This model can be used for structural optimization of highway networks in earthquake-stricken areas and provides important reference values for emergency rescue planning for area highway networks and re-construction of highways in disaster areas.