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| 引用本文： | 赵长江. ���������·������Ԥ�ⷽ���о�[J]. 交通运输系统工程与信息, 2004, 4(3): 92-96 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵长江 |
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| 作者单位： | ????????????????????滮???????300142 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对传统四阶段法不太适合长大铁路干线需求预测的实际，通过时四阶段需求预测方法及各种模型的改造，建立了一套适合我国铁路项目客运量预测的预测方法和程序.通过对京沪高速铁路的具体应用，论文就参数标定方法和应注意的问题提出了一些研究结论。
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| 关 键 词： | ??· ?г????? ?????? ????? |
| 文章编号： | 1009-6744(2004)03-0092-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2004-06-07 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004-06-07 |
A Passenger Demand Forecast for Great Railway Corridor Lines |
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| ZHAO Chang-jiang. A Passenger Demand Forecast for Great Railway Corridor Lines[J]. Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology, 2004, 4(3): 92-96 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Chang-jiang |
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| Affiliation: | Third Survey & Design Institute of China railway, Tianjin 300142, China |
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| Abstract: | Considering the practical in applicability of traditional four-stage transportation planning method on great railway lines, this paper analyses the characteristics of the railway corridor and reconstructs a serious of models to predict passenger transport demand of railway based on the background of the Beijing - Shanghai high speed railway. Some practical application results have been given to demonstrate their applicability. The paper also advances some conclusions in calibrating and validating parameters related to above models. |
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| Keywords: | railway market economy passenger traffic volume prediction method |
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