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| 基于Granger法的交通投资与经济发展的相关性分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 温惠英,沈芬. 基于Granger法的交通投资与经济发展的相关性分析[J]. 交通与计算机, 2007, 25(3): 51-54,64 |
| 作者姓名： | 温惠英 沈芬 |
| 作者单位： | 华南理工大学,广州,510640 |
| 摘 要： | 由于交通在国民经济中的重要作用,通常认为,交通基础设施建设的投资必能促进经济的发展,我国目前在制定交通投资与交通发展政策时,把交通投资与经济增长具有因果关系作为前提,但这一前提尚缺乏严格统计意义上的逻辑论证.文中从计量经济学的角度出发,通过Granger因果关系检验对我国新时期的交通基础设施建设固定资产投资与经济发展之间的关系进行检验,得出交通投资并不总是促进经济发展的结论. |
| 关 键 词： | 交通固定资产投资 经济发展 Granger因果关系 GDP Granger Causality 交通投资 促进经济发展 相关性分析 Based Economic Development Investment Transportation 因果关系检验 固定资产投资 新时期 计量经济学 逻辑论证 统计意义 前提 经济增长 交通发展政策 交通基础设施建设 作用 国民经济 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-23 |
Correlation Between Transportation Investment and Economic Development Based on Granger Causality |
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| WEN Huiying,SHEN Fen. Correlation Between Transportation Investment and Economic Development Based on Granger Causality[J]. Computer and Communications, 2007, 25(3): 51-54,64 | |
| Authors: | WEN Huiying SHEN Fen |
| Affiliation: | South China University of Technology, Guangzhou 510641 |
| Abstract: | As transportation plays an important role in national economy, it is generally accepted that the investment of transportation will definitely accelerate the development of economy. The causality between transportation investment and economic growth is also considered as a precondition in making transportation investment policy and transportation development policy. But this precondition lacked rigid logical argument in statistical view. Based on econometrics, Granger causality test was used to analyze the relationship between transportation infrastructural investment and economic development. The conclusion indicates that transportation investment does not necessarily promote economic development. |
| Keywords: | transportation fixed asset investment economic development Granger causality GDP |
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