综合单价风险评估研究及应用

工程量清单计价模式下，建筑市场的公开竞争促使施工企业科学地运用决策分析以获取项目。清单招标一般都采用单价合同，投标人要承担组价的全部风险，而出于种种原因，综合单价中的风险费用一直未得到投标人的充分重视。此文在深入理解综合单价的基础上，系统地分析了报价风险，以此为基础构建风险分析和评估数学模型；再以随机抽样为主要手段，运用蒙特卡罗模拟技术对模型进行风险分析，得出综合单价风险概率分布，从而为投标人的报价决策提供依据。综合单价报价风险决策方法的研究对施工企业投标报价风险分析和评估具有积极的意义。

Exploration and application on quoted price risk evaluation

Under the mode of the quantities bill valuation,the open competition of construction market urge to that construction enterprises focus their attention to the decision and analysis of acquiring the project.The bill of quantities bidding usually adopts the fixed unit price contract,bidder must undertake the whole quotation risk.The risk of unit price not got enough attention to bidders all the time because of various reason.Based on the comprehensive decomposition of consolidated unit price,this paper system...