| 基于灰色模型及月度比例系数法的铁路客流预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李海军,张玉召,朱昌锋.基于灰色模型及月度比例系数法的铁路客流预测方法[J].西部交通科技,2012(3):61-64,75. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李海军 张玉召 朱昌锋 |
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| 作者单位： | 兰州交通大学交通运输学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部“人文社会科学研究一般项目”资助项目(11YJAZH132) |
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| 摘 要： | 文章针对铁路客流变化的影响因素及特点,提出了基于灰色模型及月度比例系数法的铁路客流预测方法,并通过实例分析,证明了该方法预测误差小、精度高、计算简便、可操作性强,可为铁路车站客运计划的制定及日常客运工作组织提供准确、可靠的数据。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色模型 月度比例系数法 铁路客流 预测 |
Railway Passenger Flow Forecasting Methods Based on Grey Model and Monthly Proportion Coefficient Method |
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| LI Hai-jun,ZHANG Yu-zhao,ZHU Chang-feng.Railway Passenger Flow Forecasting Methods Based on Grey Model and Monthly Proportion Coefficient Method[J].Western China Communication Science & Technology,2012(3):61-64,75. |
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| Authors: | LI Hai-jun ZHANG Yu-zhao ZHU Chang-feng |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou,Gansu,730070) |
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| Abstract: | Regarding the influencing factors and characteristics of railway pas-senger flow changes,the article proposed the railway passenger flow forecasting method based on grey model and monthly proportion coefficient method,and through the analysis by cases,it proved that the method is with small prediction error,high precision,simple calculation and strong maneuverability,which can provide the accurate and reliable data for formulating the passenger transport plan of railway station and daily passenger work organization. |
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| Keywords: | Grey model Monthly proportion coefficient method Railway pas-senger flow Forecasting |
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