| 基于灰理论的成都市铁路旅客周转量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 李华,牟瑞芳.基于灰理论的成都市铁路旅客周转量预测[J].石家庄铁道学院学报,2011(2):70-73. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李华 牟瑞芳 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 铁路旅客周转量是一个受多种因子制约的多层次的复杂关系量，将成都市2004—2008年铁路旅客周转量作为基础数据，运用灰理论所提出的灰系统模型预测法，建立GM（1，1）模型，预测2009--2011年的铁路旅客周转量。预测结果表明2009--2011年成都市铁路旅客周转量总体呈上升趋势。同时，GM（1，1）预测值经过检验，预测结果精度较高，说明预测方法的可靠性，预测结果对合理布局规划成都市铁路枢组具有重要的现实意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅客周转量 灰预测 GM（1，1）模型 |
Prediction for Railway Passenger Turnover Volume of Chengdu Based on Gray Theory |
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| Li Hua,Mou Ruifang.Prediction for Railway Passenger Turnover Volume of Chengdu Based on Gray Theory[J].Journal of Shijiazhuang Railway Institute,2011(2):70-73. |
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| Authors: | Li Hua Mou Ruifang |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China) |
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| Abstract: | The railway passenger turnover volume is a complicated Relation Data System （RDS） influenced by many factors. This paper builds a GM （ 1,1 ） Model based on the gray theory forecasting method on the basis of railway passenger turnover volume between 2004 and 2008 to estimate the passenger turnover volume from 2009 to 2011. The predicted value indicates an upwzLrd trend, and the predicted data matches the original series well, indicating the high precision and the reliability of the forecasting methods. In summary, the prediction has crucial practical significance to the rational layout and planning of Chengdu Railway Hub. |
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| Keywords: | Passenger turnover volume Gray theory forecasting method Model GM （ 1 1 ） |
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