长江口北部沿海大风的气候特征及冷空气大风预报经验指标研究

根据江苏南通8个沿海气象观测站1981-2010年共30年的常规气象观测资料,对长江口北部沿海地区大风天气的时空分布特征进行了分析。结果表明,长江口北部沿海地区大风日数年际变化较大,总体呈下降趋势;季节变化明显,主要出现在夏季,其次是春季,秋季、冬季略少;长江口北部沿海大风以偏北大风为主,偏南大风相对较少。同时,利用2005-2010年日本传真天气图对长江口沿海冷空气大风的典型天气形势进行了分析,得到了其预报经验指标。

Climatic Characteristics of the Coastal Gale and the Cold-air Gale Forecast Experiences Index for the Area North of the Yangtze River Estuary

Based on the meteorological observation data of the preceding three decades from the eight coastal meteorological observation stations in Nantong, this article analyzes the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the gale in the coastal area north of the Yangtze River estuary. The research results indicate that the days of gale vary greatly from year to year in this area and overall, they are on the decline. They change significantly with the season, occurring mainly in summer, followed first by spring and then by autumn and win-ter. The northerly wind dominates this area, the southerly wind playing a minor role. In addition, this article, in combination with the 2005-2010 Japanese facsimile weather chart, analyzes the status quo of the cold air gale, the typical weather situation in this area,as well as comes up with the forecast experiences index.