三峡库区溢油快速预报模型在回水变动区的应用研究

三峡库区危险品码头数量和吞吐量逐年增加,危险品船舶流量逐渐增大,尤其是回水变动区,长年库区航段与自然航段交替出现,航道、水文、气候条件变化较大,水上交通安全风险隐患较多,发生溢油事故风险较高.文中通过基于环境流体动力学模型和溢油漂移扩散模型建立了三峡库区溢油快速预报模型,并利用该模型对几种假定情景下的三峡库区回水变动区典型水域长寿段内的溢油事故进行了模拟,并根据模拟结果提出了相应的控制策略.

Research and Application of Oil Spill Fast Forecast Model on Three Gorges Reservoir Area in Backwater Area

With the increasing of dangerous goods terminal number, dangerous goods throughput and shipping discharge in Three Gorges, especially in backwater area where Three Gorges reservoir and Natural River develop alternately in, the risk of oil spill is much higher. Based on the environment fluid dynamics model and the oil spill drift and diffusion model, the paper constructed the oil spill fast forecast model on Three Gorges Reservoir Area, and simulated assumed scenarios of oil spill in Chan- gshou which is the typical area of the backwater area in Three Gores Reservoir, and then put forward the control strategy.