长江干线水运量和承载能力研究

考虑长江水运与生态环境相互作用影响,引入资源环境学科的承载能力概念,研究界定了长江干线水运承载能力的内涵。构建了与货运量、航道通过能力、船流密度、船舶污染物排放等诸多因素相关联的长江干线水运承载能力的算法。以船舶污染物排放总量不增长为前提,得出了2035年长江干线水运承载能力。分析表明,如果环境容量允许适度增长,或进一步优化运输组织、改善提高船舶技术性能、应用清洁能源、控制污染物排放,长江干线水运承载能力尚有较大提升空间。

Freight volume and carrying capacity of the Yangtze waterway

Considering the interaction between the Yangtze waterway transport and the ecological environment,the carrying capacity concept of resources and environment discipline is introduced,and the connotation of carrying capacity of water transportation of the Yangtze waterway is defined.The algorithm of carrying capacity of water transportation of the Yangtze waterway is constructed,which is related to many factors such as freight volume,waterway capacity,shipping density and ship pollutant discharge.Based on the premise that the total amount of pollutants discharged from ships does not increase,the carrying capacity of the Yangtze waterway in 2035 is obtained.The conclusion shows that if the environmental capacity is allowed to increase moderately,or the transportation organization is further optimized,the technical performance of ships is improved,clean energy is widely applied in ship,and pollutant discharge is controlled,there is still a large space for improving the water transport capacity of the Yangtze waterway.