江苏沿海港口吞吐量影响因素及预测分析

目前江苏沿海地区综合开发已上升到国家发展战略层面,沿海港口建设正在迅猛开展。港口吞吐量的预测对于港口的建设有着极其重要的意义。以港口和腹地之间的互动关系为出发点,分析了可能影响江苏沿海港口吞吐量的若干因素,采用主成分分析法提取了过去10年影响港口吞吐量的最关键因素,剖析了江苏港口发展的内在影响机理,并提出了基于影响机理的预测模型。最后使用模型对江苏港口吞吐量进行验证分析,模型为江苏沿海港口新一轮发展提供了有力的数据支撑。

Influential factors and forecast of coastal port throughput in Jiangsu province

The comprehensive development of coastal areas has now risen to national development strategic level, the coastal port construction is carried out rapidly. On the basis of the relationship between ports and hinterland, this paper analyzes many factors which possibly influence Jiangsu coastal port cargo throughput and picks up the most important factors by principal component analysis in the past ten years. This paper also probes into the inherent mechanism of impacts of port throughput, and puts forward a forecast model based on the above mechanisms. Furthermore, this paper applies the model in the test of port throughput in Nanjing port and it provides an effective data support for the new development of Jiangsu coastal ports.