Can regional transportation and land-use planning achieve deep reductions in GHG emissions from vehicles? |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Urban and Regional Planning, Center for Urban and Environmental Solutions, Florida Atlantic University, Building 44, Room 284, 777 Glades Road, Boca Raton, FL 33431, United States;2. University of New Orleans Transportation Institute, 368 Milneburg Hall, University of New Orleans, 2000 Lakeshore Drive, New Orleans, LA 70148, United States;1. Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, The University of Tennessee, United States;2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering & Senior Fellow, Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, The University of Tennessee, United States;3. Travel Demand Modeler, Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT), United States;1. Geneva School of Business Administration, University of Applied Sciences Western Switzerland (HES-SO), 1227 Carouge, Switzerland;2. Computer Science Department, College of Computer and Information Sciences (CCIS), King Saud University (KSU), Riyadh, Saudi Arabia;3. Panalpina Centre for Manufacturing and Logistics Research, Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3EU, United Kingdom;1. VTI Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute, Stockholm, Sweden;2. Linköping University, Department of Science and Technology, Linköping, Sweden;3. KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Division of System Analysis and Economics, Stockholm, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) must be cut 40–70% by 2050 to prevent a greater than 2 °Celsius increase in the global mean temperature; a threshold that may avoid the most severe climate change impacts. Transportation accounts for about one third of GHG emissions in the United States; reducing these emissions should therefore be an important part of any strategy aimed at meeting the IPCC targets. Prior studies find that improvements in vehicle energy efficiency or decarbonization of the transportation fuel supply would be required for the transportation sector to achieve the IPCC targets. Strategies that could be implemented by regional transportation planning organizations are generally found to have only a modest GHG reduction potential. In this study we challenge these findings. We evaluate what it would take to achieve deep GHG emission reductions from transportation without advances in vehicle energy efficiency and fuel decarbonization beyond what is currently expected under existing regulations and market expectations. We find, based on modeling conducted in the Albuquerque, New Mexico metropolitan area that it is possible to achieve deep reductions that may be able to achieve the IPCC targets. Achieving deep reductions requires changes in transportation policy and land-use planning that go far beyond what is currently planned in Albuquerque and likely anywhere else in the United States. |
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| Keywords: | GHG Emissions Transportation planning Land-use planning Smart growth VMT tax Active transportation |
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