拥堵收费对弹性出行的小汽车使用者出行方式选择影响研究

所有出行群体中,受拥堵收费政策影响最大的是弹性出行的小汽车使用者。引入相对拥堵费作为政策变量,表征拥堵收费政策对该群体出行方式选择的影响,并基于Nested Logit模型,建立了拥堵收费影响下的出行者出行方式选择模型。利用对南京新街口商圈区域弹性出行的小汽车使用者进行的RP和SP调查所获得的数据,对模型参数进行了估计,结果显示:女性、低收入者、IC卡持有者、短途和高频出行者在面对拥堵收费政策时,更容易放弃小汽车而转向公共交通出行。利用弹性理论,分析了不同拥堵费水平下出行者对出行时间和拥堵收费政策的弹性,结果发现:①出行时间的弹性反映了出行方式的总体服务水平;②出行者在出行方式选择时对拥堵收费变得“显著”敏感的临界值为13.25元/次。 

A Study of the Impact of Congestion Pricing on Mode Choice of Automobile Users with Elastic Demand

Automobile users with elastic demand may be most affected by congestion pricing in all traveler groups .＆quot;Relative congestion fee＆quot;is introduced as a policy variable to represent the influence of congestion pricing on the mode choice .A mode choice model with a nested structure is developed for considering the influence of congestion pricing to dif-ferent traveler groups .An RP survey and an SP survey to the automobile users with elastic demand from Nanjing＆#39;s Xin-jiekou Commercial District are implemented and the model parameters are estimated using such data .The results show that the females ,low-income group ,IC card holders ,and travelers traveling with short-distance and high-frequency are more likely to switch from automobile to public transit when faced with the congestion pricing policy .Finally ,the elastic-ity to travel time and the charges of congestion pricing are analyzed for travelers under different congestion levels .It is found out that （1）the elasticity to travel time reveals the overall service level of the trip mode ;（2） the critical value of travelers＆#39;＆quot;significant＆quot;sensitivity to congestion fee is 13 .25 .