基于站点吸引的公交客流 OD 分布概率模型

在分析公交出行距离和下车站点的用地性质等因素对公交乘客下车概率影响的基础上，全面考虑站点对周边区域换乘的辐射影响，引入了1个新的影响因子---下车站点换乘能力，该因子利用以站点为中心，300 m到500 m为半径，可利用换乘的公交线路条数来表示；综合考虑上述3个影响因子，构建了基于站点吸引的公交客流O D分布概率模型。基于济南市公交IC卡数据，采用C＋＋语言编程实现该模型，得出了公交客流出行的空间分布规律，并采用核查线法验证该模型的可行性和有效性。验证结果表明，该模型OD反推误差可以控制在10％之内，反推精度较高，较好的贴合实际，具有一定的工程应用价值。

A Probability Model of Transit OD Distribution Based on the Allure of Bus Station

Based on analyzing the influence of the bus trip distance and the land usage on passenger＆#39;s alighting prob-ability ,the paper introduced a new factor-transfer ability of bus station ,which was represented by the number of transit routes within a radius of 300-500 meters at the center of a bus station .This factor takes into account the effects of trans-fer radiation on the surrounding area of the bus station .By considering the above three factors ,a transit passenger OD distribution probability model was constructed based on the allure of bus station .Then by taking the bus IC card data of Jinan city as a sample ,the above model was used to calculate the space distribution of transit passenger flow using C ＋ ＋language programming .In addition ,the check line method was used to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed model .The results show that the estimation error of the proposed model is within 10% ,which conforms to the precision requirements of the transit OD estimation .The model has higher estimation precision and some engineering application value .