船舶绕避热带气旋安全-经济决策模型

为了同时对多个来源的热带气旋预报进行综合处理,对可供船舶选用的绕避方案从安全和经济效益两方面同时给予定量评价和分析,基于神经网络的多源热带气旋路径集成预报和未来风浪场确定技术、风险分析理论和模糊信息优化处理技术以及气象-经济决策理论等方面的最新研究成果,提出了一种可用于大洋中船舶绕避热带气旋方案选优的安全-经济决策模型。在对“天丽海”轮7个不同绕避热带气旋方案进行的模拟优选计算中,该模型能够根据决策者的具体要求,优选出效益最佳或效用最佳的绕航方案,得到的结论与多位具有丰富绕避热带气旋经验的船长分析的最佳绕航方案基本一致。

Safe-economic decision making model of ship's avoidance routing to tropical cyclone

In order to take TC(tropical cyclone) forecasts from different observatories into consideration,make quantitative assessment and analysis for avoiding TC routes from the views of safety and economic benefit,a new safe-economic decision making method of TC avoidance routing on ocean was put forward.The model is based on the combining forecast of TC route neural networks,the technical method to determine future TC wind and wave fields,the technical method of fuzzy information optimization,risk analysis theory and meteorological-economic decision making theory.It was applied to the simulation of MV Tianlihai's shipping on ocean.The result shows that the model can select the best plan from 7 plans,the selected plan is in accordance with the one selected by experienced captains.3 tabs,5 figs,8 refs.