公交优先政策对CO2排放的影响评估

为了探讨公交优先政策对CO2排放的影响及其敏感性,进行影响评估研究。首先探讨了城市公共交通与CO2排放的关系,提出公共交通CO2排放量的4个影响因素。对近年来公交优先政策的实施效果进行分析,推断其与CO2排放存在的关联性。估算2000—2008年公共交通CO2排放量,发现其与公交平均载客量呈反比、与平均出行距离呈正比;假设6种情境,计算不同能源结构、公交分担率提高比例情况下的CO2减排量阈值,并对影响因素进行敏感性分析。在此基础上,探讨公交优先政策可能导致的CO2排放削减的量级。最后,从节能减排的角度针对公交优先政策提出建议。

Impact of Transit Priority on CO2 Emissions

To investigate how transit priority policies affect CO2 emissions,this paper conducts an impact assessment and sensitivity analysis.By discussing the relationship between urban public transit and CO2 emissions,the paper presents four elements that influence CO2 emissions of public transit system.Based on an evaluation of transit priority implemented in recent years,the paper discusses the re-lationship between the policies and CO2 emissions.It is estimated that the amounts of CO2 emissions from transit vehicles between 2000 and 2008 have a negative correlation with average passenger load and a positive correlation with average travel distance.The study calculates the CO2 emission by different fuel structure and percentage increase in public transit shares for six proposed hypothetical scenarios.Based on the analysis results,the paper discusses the CO2 emissions reduc-tion possibly by transit priority.Finally,the paper suggests various public transit priorities polices from the perspective of energy conser-vation and emissions reduction.