An application of activity-based travel analysis to simulation of change in behaviour

People are liable to exaggerate their future use of new transport facilities when they are interviewed about it before it is in operation. This is often due to the fact that they have no real frame of reference for the study. In order to overcome this, we have tried to perfect an original behaviour-change simulation method (Section 1). It has been tested on a town on the outskirts of Lyons (France) and has provided interesting results. However, to use it as a forecasting tool, we have to make sure that the assertions by potential users when interviewed are consistent with actual behaviour when the new facilities become available (Section 2). This test was carried out when a new light rail line was introduced in Grenoble (France). A first survey was undertaken before the opening of the new line, and people's actual (new) behaviour was surveyed after the new line opened. It is therefore possible to analyse the validity of the simulation (Section 3).