基于存储论的高速公路通行卡库存管理研究

为了提高高速公路通行卡的流转效率，提出了一种基于存储论的高速公路通行卡库存管理模型。利用高速公路复合通行卡CPC历史流转数据，基于自回归移动平均模型（Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model, ARIMA)，对CPC卡需求量及流转量进行预测。该模型结合存储论的方法与思想，提出库存管理周期以及最大库存、预警值及最佳订购/调拨量等相关参数，实现了库存管理的动态调整。最后进行实例分析，得出基于存储论的库存管理模型对通行卡需求量与流转量的预测误差分别为7.4%和11.5%，表明该模型预测精度较高且能够根据通行卡流转情况动态调整各相关变量，减少了收费站库存成本，提高了通行卡使用效率以及高速公路服务水平。

Expressway Pass Card Inventory Management Based on Storage Theory

In order to improve the circulation efficiency of expressway pass card, an expressway pass card inventory management model based on storage theory was proposed. Based on the historical data of expressway CPC card and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA), the demand and circulation amounts of CPC card were predicted. Based on the method and thought of storage theory, the inventory management cycle, maximum inventory, early warning value, optimal order/transfer quantity and other relevant parameters were put forward in the model, and the dynamic adjustment of inventory management was realized. Finally, an example was analyzed to show that the prediction errors of demand and circulation amounts were 7.4% and 11.5% respectively. It indicates that the model has high prediction accuracy, can dynamically adjust the relevant variables according to the circulation of pass card, reduce the inventory cost of toll stations, and improve the efficiency of the use of the pass card and the service level of the expressway.