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原油运输市场分析
引用本文:顾家骏.原油运输市场分析[J].中国航海,2007(3):61-64.
作者姓名:顾家骏
作者单位:上海船舶运输科学研究所,上海,200135
摘    要:分别概述了世界与中国的石油资源储量分布、可持续开采年数、不同地区的生产量与消耗量、以及产销平衡状况,由此派生的全球不同地区原油、成品油的进出口量、海运量与主要的海运航线,我国石油进口的主要来源和途径;分析了油轮的船型和船龄的分布,进而预测了世界上几种主要原油轮运力的供应、需求、船价与运价的发展趋势。这些分析和预测可以作为制定油轮发展的技术政策、战略、规划等宏观决策时的参考。

关 键 词:交通运输经济学  原油  运输市场  海运量  决策
文章编号:1000-4653(2007)03-0061-04
收稿时间:2007-05-24
修稿时间:2007年5月24日

Analysis of Crude Oil Transportation Market
GU Jia-jun.Analysis of Crude Oil Transportation Market[J].Navigation of China,2007(3):61-64.
Authors:GU Jia-jun
Institution:Shanghai Ship and Shipping Research Institute, Shanghai 200135, China
Abstract:The situation of the world's and China's petroleum is briefly introduced,which includes crude oil resource reserves,sustainable development years,production and consumption in different regions and country groups,balance of production/consumption,input/output freight traffic and main trade routes for crude oil and production oil in different regions of the world,and primary sources and channels of input crude oil for our country.The types and ages of tankers are analyzed,the development trends of supply,demand,ship price and freight rates are forecasted for several main types of crude oil tanker.These analysis and predictions can be a reference for making macroscopic decision of technical policy,strategy and planning of tanker development.
Keywords:Traffic transport economics  Crude oil  Trade market  Freight traffic  Decision making
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