山岭隧道塌方风险的集对分析方法

为了改进传统的隧道塌方风险分析方法,首先在深入研究山岭隧道塌方风险影响因素基础上确定出主要影响因素,并建立了隧道塌方风险的二级综合评价模型;然后针对各评价指标确定与不确定性信息并存的特点,引入集对分析理论,建立联系度评价矩阵,从同一、差异和对立3个方面全面刻画被评价指标与各风险等级的同一、对立程度;最后,考虑到各评价指标重要程度的不确定性、专家认知的局限性以及专家评价结果可信度的差异性,基于群组决策不确定型层次分析方法确定权重,进而建立山岭隧道塌方风险的集对分析方法。工程实例分析和计算表明：所建立的山岭隧道塌方风险集对分析方法可行、合理。

Method of Set Pair Analysis for Collapse Risk During Construction of Mountain Tunnel

In order to improve traditional analysis method of collapse risk of tunnels,based on a comprehensive analysis of the risk factors of tunnel collapse,firstly,the authors identified the main influence factors and formulated a two-stage synthetic assessment model of collapse risk of mountain tunnel.Secondly,according to the features of coexistence between determinacy information and uncertainty information on evaluation indexes,they introduced set pair analysis theory to establish connection degree evaluation matrixes,which could comprehensively describe the relationship between evaluation indexes and risk ranks from three aspects of identity,difference and antagonism.Thirdly,considering the uncertainties of the importance degree of evaluation index,limitation of experts’ recognition and difference of experts’ evaluation result reliability,they formulated and calculated its weights based on the method of uncertain analytic hierarchy process of group decision.Finally,they developed set pair analysis method of collapse risk during construction of mountain tunnel.Analysis and calculation of the practical engineering show that the established set pair analysis method of collapse risk during construction of mountain tunnel is feasible and reasonable.