有轨电车延伸线客流预测方法在法国的实践

目前,为了改善交通情况和提高公共交通的使用率．法国Clermont-Ferrand正在进行该市一条有轨电车北延伸的可行性研究。以该市实际的交通情况为基础,使用经典四步骤法,完成了该有轨电车延伸段的客流预测。在研究期间,还使用了法国交通软件——MOSTRA。对于交通方式划分,使用了交通费用、行程时间、舒适度以及换乘次数作为参数。

Practice of the estimate of the potential demand of tram in France

Presently,at Clermont-Ferrand,in order to optimize the condition of the transport and to raise the proportion of the trip of the collective transport,there is a research of the feasibility of the prolonging north of the line A of the tram.There is a very important part in this research---the estimate of the potential demand.In this report,the research is about the condition of transport of Clermont-Ferrand.The classic method of estimate,the method of four steps,is used.For the result,software MOSTRA and the model LOGIT are used.For the repartition of the mode,the cost,the time of journey,the degree of the comfort and the time of sentiment are used for the parameters of the utility.