Extreme response based reliability analysis of composite risers for applications in deepwater

As current oil reserves start to deplete, companies are looking to exploit deeper deposits. At these greater depths composite risers, with their high strength-to-weight ratio, reduce the effective tensions and bending moments compared to steel risers. However, there is still limited research into their behaviour, with one key missing element being a comparison with traditional riser designs which accounts for variances in material properties and wave loads. This paper therefore conducts a strength-based reliability analysis of composite catenary risers operating between 1,500 m and 4,000 m. A static global catenary model is combined with Classical Laminate Theory to determine the extreme response and its performance is verified against FEA. This response is evaluated with the Tsai-Wu failure criterion to determine first-ply failure. The effect of laminate moisture absorption on the long-term reliability of submerged composite-based risers is also investigated as it can cause a significant reduction in the strength of composite risers. The reliability analysis is conducted using the Monte Carlo Method, revealing that the composite risers perform well at 4000 m. The degradation in performance from moisture absorption becomes increasingly important at greater depths and needs further investigation for these applications.