基于成长模型的吹填土软基沉降预测方法研究*

堆载预压和真空堆载联合预压处理吹填淤泥软基沉降变化规律与3种"S"型成长曲线变化规律相似。影响软基沉降发展规律的因素很多,3种成长曲线沉降预测模型仅反映了沉降发展规律中一种或几种信息特征,将各种单项预测模型进行组合,引入了变权"S"型成长曲线组合模型,结合围海造陆工程实例,对吹填淤泥软基沉降进行预测,结果表明:变权组合沉降预测模型预测未来沉降与实测值十分吻合,预测精度较单项模型高,采用该模型进行吹填淤泥软基沉降预测是可行的。

Settlement prediction of dredged fill foundation based on growth model

The settlement of dredged fill soft clay foundation reinforced by surcharge preloading and combined vacuum-surcharge preloading is similar to three "S" type growth curves.There are many factors affecting the developing regularity of settlement in soft clay foundation,and three settlement prediction models based on growth curve reflect only one kind or several kinds of information characteristics of settlement developing regularity.The variable weight and "S" type growth curves combination model is established to analyze the settlement data of dredged fill soft clay foundation in land reclamation project by the combination of individual prediction model,the analytical results of engineering practice indicate that the future settlement by this method of variable weight and combination settlement prediction model is consistent with measures values,and compared with individual models,variable weight and combination settlement prediction model has good prediction accuracy.The model is reasonable to predict the settlement of dredged fill soft clay foundation.