基于模糊随机模拟的船舶经济指标期望值模型

模糊和随机两类不确定因素常常是同时存在的,有时又融合在一起。所以建立基于随机模拟、模糊模拟的期望值计算模型是非常有实用价值的。在航运市场中船价、运价、油价等因素不仅受国家政治经济的影响,还受航运市场的供需关系及相关市场的影响,带有很大的随机性。而船舶的实际营运时间不仅与船舶的技术状况、企业管理有关,还与港口航道状况、天气气象等有密切的关系,带有很大的模糊性。基于以上特点,文章采用随机模拟和模糊模拟相结合的方法建立了船舶经济指标期望值模型。

Ship Economy Expected Value Model Based on Stochastic Simulation and Fuzzy Simulation

Stochastic and fuzzy parameters are not isolated,thus it is of practical value to establish expected value calculation model based on stochastic simulation and fuzzy simulation.In the shipping market,factors such as ship price,freight rate,and oil price are influenced not only by national political and economical environment,but also by the relation between supply and demand,and relevant markets.So they are stochastic;While the actual operation time of the vessel does not merely relate to technological state and business administration,it also has a close relation with port state and weather.So it is fuzzy.Based on the above-said characteristics,a combination of stochastic simulation and fuzzy simulation is applied for establishing ship economy expected value model.