Reprint of: Modelling the impact of traffic incidents on travel time reliability |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Civil Engineering, The University of Queensland, Australia;2. Faculty of Built Environment and Engineering, Queensland University of Technology, Australia;3. School of ICT, Griffith University, Brisbane, QLD 4111, Australia;1. NEXTRANS Center, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47906, USA;2. Goergen Institute for Data Science, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA;3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA;4. Department of Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics, The University of Arizona, AZ 85721, USA;5. Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Ohio State University, OH 43210, USA;6. Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, University at Buffalo, the State University of New York, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA;1. Intelligent Transportation Systems Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 0219, USA;2. Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology, 1 CREATE Way, #09-02 CREATE Tower, Singapore 138602, Singapore;3. Edmund K. Turner Professor of Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, MIT. Room 1-181, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA;4. Institute of Transportation Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China |
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| Abstract: | Traffic incidents are recognised as one of the key sources of non-recurrent congestion that often leads to reduction in travel time reliability (TTR), a key metric of roadway performance. A method is proposed here to quantify the impacts of traffic incidents on TTR on freeways. The method uses historical data to establish recurrent speed profiles and identifies non-recurrent congestion based on their negative impacts on speeds. The locations and times of incidents are used to identify incidents among non-recurrent congestion events. Buffer time is employed to measure TTR. Extra buffer time is defined as the extra delay caused by traffic incidents. This reliability measure indicates how much extra travel time is required by travellers to arrive at their destination on time with 95% certainty in the case of an incident, over and above the travel time that would have been required under recurrent conditions. An extra buffer time index (EBTI) is defined as the ratio of extra buffer time to recurrent travel time, with zero being the best case (no delay). A Tobit model is used to identify and quantify factors that affect EBTI using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. Both fixed and random parameter Tobit specifications are tested. The estimation results reveal that models with random parameters offer a superior statistical fit for all types of incidents, suggesting the presence of unobserved heterogeneity across segments. What factors influence EBTI depends on the type of incident. In addition, changes in TTR as a result of traffic incidents are related to the characteristics of the incidents (multiple vehicles involved, incident duration, major incidents, etc.) and traffic characteristics. |
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| Keywords: | Travel time reliability Traffic incidents Recurrent and non-recurrent congestion Tobit model |
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