交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济拉动作用的定量分析

运用投入产出模型定量分析了公路交通基础设施建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。拉动作用主要表现为公路建设投资所产生的直接、间接和诱导经济效益,其总和为公路建设投资的乘数效应,可分别用产出乘数、GDP乘数和就业乘数来测算。分析测算了我国近年来公路建设投资对国民经济的拉动作用。估算结果表明,(1)公路建筑业对其他部门的波及影响程度大于各部门的平均影响水平;(2)拉动作用在1998年最为显著,自1999年开始,公路投资拉动经济增长的百分比呈逐年上升的趋势。

Quantitative Analysis of Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Investment on National Economy

Input-output models are applied to quantify the effects of investment in highway transport infrastructure construction on national economy.The effects include direct,indirect,and induced economic benefits to an area,which can be identified in terms of multipliers of output,gross domestic product(GDP),employment throughout the affected area.As a case study,the effects of highway investment are estimates by the Chinese government in recent years.The estimation results show that the backward multiplier effects of highway construction on other sectors are greater than those of the other sectors on average,and that the effects were most prominent in 1998,and the induced economic growth had been increasing year by year since 1999.