| 基于混沌理论的短时交通流量预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋高,韩印,易若晨.基于混沌理论的短时交通流量预测[J].交通与运输,2010(2). |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋高 韩印 易若晨 |
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| 作者单位： | 上海理工大学管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金(51008196); 上海市重点学科项目(S30504); 上海市研究生创新基金(JWCXSL1002); 上海市科委科技攻关项目(10dz21510700) |
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| 摘 要： | 随着智能交通的发展,实时动态交通分配成为当前研究热门问题。短时交通流预测是实时动态交通分配的关键技术之一,在当今交通控制以及车辆导航中具有不可替代的地位。通过对交通流数据进行分析,得出交通系统具有耗散系统特性,并且存在混沌。在此基础上,运用混沌理论对交通流数据进行相空间重构,并用多元局域预测法对时间序列进行预测。通过分析预测数据,得出基于混沌理论的短时交通流量预测在2～5 min内具有较高的预测精度。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市交通 交通流 预测 混沌理论 耗散系统 多元局域预测法 |
Short-time Traffic Forecast Based on Chaos Theory |
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| SONG Gao,HAN Yin,YI Ruo-chen.Short-time Traffic Forecast Based on Chaos Theory[J].Traffic and Transportation,2010(2). |
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| Authors: | SONG Gao HAN Yin YI Ruo-chen |
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| Institution: | SONG Gao,HAN Yin,YI Ruo-chen(Business School,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China) |
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| Abstract: | With the development of intelligent traffic,real-time dynamic traffic assignment(DTA) has become one of the most popular researches.Short-time traffic forecast is the key technology of real-time dynamic traffic assignment,and plays an important role in traffic control and navigation.After analyzing data of traffic flow,the paper addresses that transportation system is dissipative and chaos exists in traffic status.Therefore,phase space reconstruction and multivariate local method is employed to generate and... |
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| Keywords: | Urban traffic Traffic flow Forecast Chaos Theory Dissipative system Multivariate local method |
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