基于不确定旅客需求的高速铁路鲁棒列车开行方案研究

针对现实中旅客需求的不确定性，将旅客需求划分为必须满足的确定性旅客需求和可适当满足的波动性旅客需求，以极小化铁路运营公司总运营成本为目标，利用轻鲁棒技术，构建不确定旅客需求下高速铁路鲁棒列车开行方案优化模型。本文所提出的优化模型无需事先给出线路备选集，只需提前输入铁路走廊相关参数和旅客需求分布，即可得到旅客需求驱动的列车开行方案，避免了备选集合设置不合理对列车开行方案质量的影响。另外，通过引入线性化技术将模 型转化为整数线性规划模型，利用MATLAB平台调用GUROBI进行求解。最后，将模型应用到武汉-广州高速铁路走廊上，验证了其有效性。结果表明，优化后的方案能更好地处理旅客出行需求的不确定性，为编制高速铁路鲁棒列车开行方案提供一定的理论依据。

Robust Train Operation Plan Based on Uncertain Passenger Demands for High-speed Railway Corridors

To minimize operating costs for the railway operation company, this paper formulated a robust optimization model to generate the train operation plan completely with considering the uncertainty of passenger demands (including deterministic passenger demand and fluctuation passenger demand), in which the light robustness technique was particularly applied. Specifically, the proposed model only needs the relevant parameters of the railway corridor and the distribution of passenger demands. Since it does not require an alternative set of lines, the proposed model can avoid the negative impact of the unreasonable alternative lines on the quality of the train operation plan. In addition, for computational convenience, we introduced linearization techniques to formulate an integer linear programming model. Finally, a series of numerical experiments were carried out on Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed railway corridor to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, where the MATLAB software with GUROBI solver was applied to obtain the optimized train operation plan. The optimized scheme can deal with the uncertainty of passenger demands and can be a reference for generating the high-speed railway train operation plan.