港口交通资源承载力预测预警模型

根据航道交通容量计算方法,建立了航道资源静态承载力模型,基于锚地规模计算方法和基准判定参数,建立了锚地资源承载力分级模型。应用排队理论,将港口码头泊位的服务强度与航道资源、锚地资源的承载力模型相融合,构建了港口交通资源承载力综合预测预警模型,并以中国南方某港口进行实例验证。计算结果表明:应用预测预警模型,2008年与2010年的航道资源承载力指数分别为0.405与0.608,锚地资源承载力综合指数分别为1.489与0.600,2008年的港口码头服务强度为0.565,计算结果与事实相符;按照货物吞吐量的增长速度,预计到2015年,最小、最大航道资源承载力指数分别为0.593与0.796,预计到2020年,最小、最大航道资源承载力指数分别为0.685与0.944;基于现有锚地资源,预计到2015年,水深小于5m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为0.177,水深在5～10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.037,水深大于10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.294,预计到2020年,水深小于5m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为0.210,水深在5～10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.231,水深大于10m的最大锚地资源承载力指数为1.535;预计到2015年,港口码头的最小泊位服务强度为0.858,预计到2020年,港口码头的最小泊位服务强度为0.994。

Forecasting and early-warning model of port traffic resource carrying capacity

Based on the calculation method of channel traffic capacity,the static carrying capacity model of channel resource was set up.According to the computing method of anchorage scale and basic judgment parameter,the classification model of anchorage resource carrying capacity was put forward.On the basis of queuing theory,the service strength of port berth and the carrying capacity models of channel resource and anchorage resource were fused,the comprehensive forecasting and early-warning model of port traffic resource carrying capacity was built,and example verification was carried out through case port in Southern China.Calculation result shows that by using the proposed model,channel resource carrying capacity indexes in 2008 and 2010 are 0.405 and 0.608 respectively,comprehensive anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes in 2008 and 2010 are 1.489 and 0.600 respectively,the service strength of port berth in 2008 is 0.565,and the calculation results are consistent with the fact.With the increase speed of cargo throughput,the minimum and maximum of channel resource carrying capacity indexes will be 0.593 and 0.796 respectively in 2015,and will be 0.685 and 0.944 respectively in 2020.Based on the existing anchorage resource,while water depth is below 5 m,the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 0.177 and 0.210 respectively in 2015 and 2020.While water depth is from 5 m to 10 m,the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 1.037 and 1.231 respectively in 2015 and 2020.While water depth is more than 10 m,the maximum anchorage resource carrying capacity indexes will be 1.294 and 1.535 respectively in 2015 and 2020.The minimum service strengths of port berths will be 0.858 and 0.994 respectively in 2015 and 2020.5 tabs,7 figs,19 refs.