沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境综合风险评价研究

通过对影响桥梁水域通航环境的因素综合分析,构建出桥梁水域通航风险评价指标体系,以模糊理论为基础,采用层次分析法(AHP)建立了桥梁水域通航环境综合风险评价模型,并利用该方法对沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境进行综合风险评价。通过综合风险评价的结果,可以充分掌握沪通铁路长江大桥水域通航环境的危险程度以及各项指标因素的危险状况,为海事管理部门改善桥梁水域的通航环境及通航管理提供科学的决策依据和参考。

On risk assessment of navigation environment of Shanghai-Nantong railway Yangtze River Bridge Waters

Based on the analysis of the factors influencing the navigation environmental the bridge navigable waters,we construct the indices system for the risk assessment of the bridge navigable waters.Based on the fuzzy theory,we build a comprehensive environmental risk assessment model for the bridge navigable waters using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP),and carry out a comprehensive risk assessment on the navigation environment of Shanghai-Nantong railway Yangtze River Bridge The result indicates the degree of risks and index factors in dangerous condition,and may serve as reference for the maritime administrative department to improve the navigation condition and maritime administration for the bridge waters.