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| 基于灰色二次指数平滑的QAR参数关联度预测 | |
| 引用本文： | 张秀艳,刘然. 基于灰色二次指数平滑的QAR参数关联度预测[J]. 综合运输, 2021, 0(1): 76-81 |
| 作者姓名： | 张秀艳 刘然 |
| 作者单位： | 中国民航大学经济与管理学院安全工程系 |
| 基金项目： | 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0802601);中国民航大学中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(3122013D016);中国民航大学实验技术创新基金项目(2020CXJJ18)。 |
| 摘 要： | 由于QAR参数波动的后果具有潜在性和滞后性,因此分析人员容易忽视其危险性而使其发展为不利事件。针对该问题,提出运用QAR参数关联度分析的方法,建立QAR参数波动与事件之间的对应关系;并构建基于二次指数平滑-灰色关联法的关联度预测模型,进一步明确QAR参数波动与事件之间关系的动态变化趋势。运用实际数据对该模型进行验证,表明结论符合实际,该模型科学合理,可以用于QAR参数分析过程。 |
| 关 键 词： | QAR参数 关联度 预测 飞行安全 民航运输 |
Prediction of QAR Parameters Correlation Based on Secondary Exponential Smoothing-Grey Correlation Method |
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| ZHANG Xiuyan,LIU Ran. Prediction of QAR Parameters Correlation Based on Secondary Exponential Smoothing-Grey Correlation Method[J]. Comprehensive Transportation, 2021, 0(1): 76-81 | |
| Authors: | ZHANG Xiuyan LIU Ran |
| Affiliation: | (Civil Aviation University of China and College of Safety Science and Engineering,TianJin 300300 China) |
| Abstract: | The consequence of QAR parameters fluctuation was potential and hysteretic,so analysts were easy to overlook the danger and make it development for the adverse event.Aiming at this problem,the analysis method of QAR parameters correlation was put forward to establish the relationship between QAR parameters fluctuation and events;and the prediction model based on secondary exponential smoothing-grey correlation method was built to demonstrate the dynamic change trend of such relationship.It is proved by using actual data that the conclusion is consistent with the actual process,and the model is scientific,reasonable,and can be used for QAR parameters analysis. |
| Keywords: | QAR parameters Correlation Prediction Flight safety Civil aviation transportation |
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