基于背景值修正的协同预测模型

斜坡岩体变形到滑坡的发生,实质上是由组成斜坡的各子系统协同作用的结果.通过将协同学引入斜坡的稳定性预测评价中,提出了协同预测模型1].而背景值公式是影响该模型预测精度的关键因素之一,传统的背景值公式实际是采用梯形公式近似的计算曲线所围成的面积,经研究则通过曲线函数积分的方式对协同预测模型中的背景值进行了修正,使其计算的面积更加的接近实际值,以提高原有协同预测模型的精度和预测的准确性.并以甘肃省永靖县黄茨滑坡为实例进行了检验,其绝对误差减少了2d2h,相对误差减小了2.7%,充分说明改进的预测模型用于滑坡短期预报的有效性、可行性,而且修正后模型所需位移数据时间间隔较大,在一定程度上节省了监测数据所需的费用.

Synergetic Forecast Model Based on Correctional Background Value

From deformation to sliding,the evolution of slop is generally resulted by synergetic effect of all systems which consist of slops.The synergetic forecast model was brought by the introducing of Synergetics and the background value is one of the key factors of affecting this model.However,the traditional background value has an error by calculate the area approximatively which enclose by the curve in using trapezoidal formula.After studying,correct the background value by the integral of the curve to improve its veracity and tested by the data in Huangci of Yongjing in Gansu provience.The result is that its absolute error reduced 2days and 2hours while the relative error is reduced by 2.7%,and it proved that the effectiveness and feasibility of the corrected model.And the model can also save the cost of monitoring data by using large interval data.