| 报废汽车动态学建模及预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 金晓红,储江伟,张铜柱,崔鹏飞,田广东,王虎.报废汽车动态学建模及预测分析[J].交通与计算机,2008,26(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 金晓红 储江伟 张铜柱 崔鹏飞 田广东 王虎 |
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| 作者单位： | 吉林大学,长春,130025 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对汽车产品的生产、销售、使用、报废等过程分析,确立了汽车报废系统各变量之间的因果关系;利用系统动态学方法建立了汽车报废系统流图,通过对流图的分析构建了汽车报废系统数学模型,以此模型为基础对我国汽车报废量进行了仿真预测,并对我国汽车报废量的发展趋势及各种因素变化的影响进行了分析.
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| 关 键 词： | 报废汽车 模型 系统动态学 预测 |
Analysis of Dynamic Modeling and Prediction of End-of-life Vehicles |
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| JIN Xiaohong,CHU Jiangwei,ZHANG Tongzhu,CUI Pengfei,TIAN Guangdong,WANG Hu.Analysis of Dynamic Modeling and Prediction of End-of-life Vehicles[J].Computer and Communications,2008,26(5). |
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| Authors: | JIN Xiaohong CHU Jiangwei ZHANG Tongzhu CUI Pengfei TIAN Guangdong WANG Hu |
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| Institution: | Jilin University;Changchun 130025;China |
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| Abstract: | The consequence between the variables in the end-of-life vehicle system was established by analyzing the product lifecycle assessment,including the production,sale,use,end of life,recovery,and recycle of automobile.Based on the system dynamics,the flow chart of the end-of-life vehicle system was built,and a model of the system was established.The number of the end-of-life vehicles was predicted based on this model.The trend of the end-of-life vehicles and the effect of various factors were analyzed. |
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| Keywords: | end-of-life vehicle modeling system dynamics prediction |
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