基于交通条件改善的公路网交通生成预测方法研究

以经济、人口、车辆保有和广义出行时间为基本变量,采用回归分析方法建立交通生成预测模型,从而在交通生成阶段中考虑了交通出行条件改善的影响,将交通生成预测和诱增交通预测两者结合,既考虑了社会经济对交通的决定作用,又考虑了交通供给对交通生成的反作用。模型应用于江苏省高速公路网规划实践,结果表明,模型能够反映不同地区经济、人口、车辆保有以及交通条件等因素对各地区交通生成特性的差异,并且具有实用、精度高、可操作性强的特点。

Traffic Forecast Method for Highway Network's Trip Generation Based on Traffic Improvement

Based on economy,population,vehicles ownership and general travel time,this paper sets up a traffic demand forecast model by regression analysis.Thus it is considered that the traffic condition will affect the demand in the stage of trip generation forecast.This model combines trip generation forecast with induced demand forecast.This model both considers social economy and traffic supply to traffic demand.This model has been applied to the expressway network planning in Jiangsu province.The results indicat...