| 铁路客运专线客流量预测分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈翠利,黄志彤.铁路客运专线客流量预测分析[J].交通科技与经济,2008,10(1):75-76. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈翠利 黄志彤 |
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| 作者单位： | 西南交通大学,交通运输学院,四川,成都,610031 |
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| 摘 要： | 客流预测是客运专线各项工作得以顺利进行的基础研究课题。首先分析了一般客流预测方法的特点，然后按照客运专线客流的形成原因将其分为趋势客流、诱发客流和转移客流，根据各部分客流的自身变化特点，分别采用不同的模型或方法进行预测，最后给出了总体客流量预测的计算方法。
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| 关 键 词： | 客运专线 诱发客流 转移客流 预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-5696(2008)01-0075-02 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007年9月28日 |
Study on Forecast of the Passenger Traffic Volume of Passenger-Dedicated Line |
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| CHEN Cui-li,HUANG Zhi-tong.Study on Forecast of the Passenger Traffic Volume of Passenger-Dedicated Line[J].Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications,2008,10(1):75-76. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Cui-li HUANG Zhi-tong |
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| Institution: | (School of Traffic and Transportation, Southwest Jiao Tong University, Chengdu 610031, China) |
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| Abstract: | The study on forecast of the passenger traffic volume is the basic one of all researches on passenger-dedicated line.In the article,the character of current methods of passenger flow forecast is introduced firstly.Then the passenger traffic flow of passenger-dedicated line is divided into trend flow,bring out flow and shifting flow by the production factor of each part.The paper adopts certain model to forecast the volume based on the changing character of each part of passengers flow and provides the expressions which predicts the volume of the flow of passengers finally. |
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| Keywords: | passenger-dedicated line bring out flow shifting flow forecast |
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