民航飞行品质监控及预警管理探索

目前, 中国各大航空公司开展了飞行品质监控、对监控数据的分析, 为保证飞行安全, 加快新飞行员的培养提供了有效的科学手段。然而, 飞行品质监控的预警管理功能亟待加强。通过调查分析中国民航飞行品质监控的管理模式和管理措施, 提出了利用民航飞行品质监控进行民航灾害预警管理的新思路, 探讨了民航飞行品质监控的预测方法。计算结果表明, 可采用指数平滑法预测超限事件的发生趋势, 及时发现民航事故的早期征兆, 为民航灾害预警管理提供对策依据。

Civil aviation flight character surveillance and forewarning management

At present,some great airline companies are developing flight character surveillance.The analysis of the relevant parameter supplies the effective technical measures for flight safety and training aviators.However,the forewarning management function of the flight character surveillance needs to be enhanced.By diagnosing the management pattern and measure of civil aviation flight character surveillance,a new way of civil aviation disasters forewarning management is stated through flight character surveillance,and the forecast methods of the civil aviation flight character surveillance are discussed.The calculation results show that exponential smoothing is suitable to forecast the trend exceed the limits so as to find the early signs of civil aviation accidents and provide some basis for civil aviation disasters forewarning management. 1 tab, 4 refs.