腹地经济发展对港口吞吐量影响的动态研究

腹地经济规模和经济结构的变化影响着港口的发展方向，但是一般的静态回归模型中解释变量参数是固定的，无法反应腹地各种影响因素变化对港口吞吐量产生的动态影响，而变参数状态空间模型克服了这一缺陷，解释变量的参数可以随时间改变，充分体现了解释变量对因变量影响关系的改变，因此能够更加准确反映考察期内腹地各种因素对港口吞吐量的动态影响。在介绍模型的基础上，就东北经济对大连港集装箱吞吐量影响进行了实证研究，得出了较为详尽的结论，这些结论是港口未来发展的重要决策依据。

Influence of Hinter's Economic Development on Port's Throughput

The economic development of the hinterland has a great impact on the throughput of ports,but in general regression model,the parameter is fixed.In fact,the economic structure has gradually changed in recent years due to various outside impact and policy alteration,so the general fixed parameter model is not suitable for the research.With the time-varying parameter state space model presented in this paper,the dynamic relationship between throughput of DCT and economic development of its hinterland is studied.