基于SD 仿真的广西北部湾港集疏运系统协调发展研究*

为分析港口集疏运系统的行为特征和发展趋势,首先依据协同论等相关理论,对港口集疏运系统协调发展内涵进行了界定。其次以广西北部湾港口为研究对象,运用系统动力学的原理及仿真方法,在系统分析和因果反馈分析的基础上建立了港口集疏运协调发展的系统动力学模型,包括港口吞吐需求、吞吐能力、集疏运结构及货源结构4个子模块。模型结构与行为等检验方式验证了该模型的有效性。最后基本模拟和政策模拟结果分析为港口集疏运发展决策提供理论依据和指导。

On coordinated development of Guangxi Beibu-gulf ports' collecting and dispatching system based on SD simulation

To analyze the behavior characteristics and trends of port’s collecting and dispatching system,we defined the concept of coordinated development of port’s collecting and dispatching system based on the synergetic and other theories.Taking Guangxi Beibu-gulf port as the research object,we present a system dynamics approach based on the system analysis and cause-and-effect analysis.The proposed SD model comprises 4 sub-modules: port throughout demand,throughout capacity,transport structure,freight structure.The basic simulation and policy simulation are carried out after the validation of the SD model,which can offer a theoretical basis for establishing relevant policies.