| 基于指数平滑技术的灰色沉降预测模型及应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 俞志峰,谢正文.基于指数平滑技术的灰色沉降预测模型及应用[J].中南公路工程,2007,32(3):120-123. |
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| 作者姓名： | 俞志峰 谢正文 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京北良工程建设监理有限公司杭州分公司 浙江杭州310018(俞志峰)，中国计量学院计量技术工程学院 浙江杭州310018(谢正文) |
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| 摘 要： | GM(1,1)模型是沉降预测中应用较为广泛的模型之一,在实际应用当中发现其预测效果有时候较差甚至完全失效。将指数平滑技术引入到灰色预测模型中,该方法既充分利用了观测序列中的有用信息,又大大减少其随机性,将平均斜率法对灰色模型的背景值计算方法进行了改进,将原始观测数据序列变换成规律性强的呈指数变化的序列。某公路试验段实测沉降数据计算表明,新方法有满意的拟合和预测效果,为提高建模精度提供了新的途径。
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| 关 键 词： | 指数平滑 灰色模型 平均斜率 沉降预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-1205（2007）03-0120-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-26 |
Improved grey model by exponential smoothing for settlement prediction and its application |
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| YU Zhifeng, XIE Zhengwen.Improved grey model by exponential smoothing for settlement prediction and its application[J].Central South Highway Engineering,2007,32(3):120-123. |
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| Authors: | YU Zhifeng XIE Zhengwen |
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| Institution: | 1. Beichen construction management in Beijing Hang Zhou Branch, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China; 2. Collage of metrological and engineering, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang 310018, China |
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| Abstract: | GM(1,1) model is one of the most widely used methods in settlement prediction,and it is found that the precision is low even defect.Based on exponential smoothing method,a new grey prediction model was put forward.This method can not only make full use of the available information but also greatly diminish the randomness of deformation surveying data sequential.Then the average slope method is used to improve the background value of grey model,and the original surveying data sequential can be transformed to a regular exponential variety sequential.An actual example is used,and it show that the new model has satisfactory fitting effects and thus points a novel direction to higher modeling procedure. |
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| Keywords: | exponential smoothing grey model average slope settlement prediction |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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