基于综合距离指标的单船穿越冲突测量研究

为了监控单船穿越船舶流水域的交通风险,在考虑单船穿越动态过程和多关联对象影响的基础上,提出了运用综合距离指标测量单船穿越冲突,并根据综合距离指标与冲突之间的反比关系,建立了单船穿越冲突测量模型;将基于专家问卷数据85%位累计频率分析得出的综合距离指标判定标准与相应情形下综合距离指标实测数据的95%概率区间进行比较,得到了轻微、中等、严重3种单船穿越冲突程度的判定标准.研究结果表明:该测量模型准确反映了综合距离指标中3个参数对单船穿越冲突的影响, 3个参数同时增大时交通冲突值减小,任意1个参数值减小时交通冲突值增大;本文的判定标准适用于内河水域能见度为0.8~6.0 n mile、船舶长度60~180 m、航速3~13 kn、忽略风流浪影响的情形. 

Measuring Traffic Conflict of Single Ship Crossing Ship Flow Based on Integrative Distance Index

To supervise the traffic risk of single ship crossing ship flow in waters,an integrative distance index was proposed to measure the traffic conflict of single ship crossing ship flow by considering the impact of single ship crossing’s dynamic course and associated multi-objects.A primary model was built to measure the traffic conflict of single ship crossing ship flow according to the inverse ratio relation between the integrative distance index and traffic conflict.Then,the criteria in mild,moderate,and severe traffic conflict conditions for single ship crossing ship flow were confirmed by comparison between the criterion from 85 percentile cumulated frequency value analysis based on expert questionnaire data and the probability interval at 95% of the observed integrative distance index data in corresponding conditions.The results show that measuring model can exactly reflect the impact of the three parameters of integrative distance index on the traffic conflict of single ship crossing ship flow.When the value of the three parameters increases simultaneously,the traffic conflict borne by single ship decreases;when the value of anyone parameter decreases,however,the traffic conflict borne by single ship increases.The criteria proposed in this paper applies to cases when visibility is 0.8 to 6.0 n mile in the inner waters,ship length is 60 to 180 m,ship speed is 3 to 13 kn,and the impacts of wind,current and wave are negligible.