| 高速公路车速离散性与事故率的关系研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 侯典建,孙小端,贺玉龙.高速公路车速离散性与事故率的关系研究[J].交通标准化,2010(13):70-72. |
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| 作者姓名： | 侯典建 孙小端 贺玉龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京工业大学交通工程北京市重点实验室,北京,100124 |
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| 摘 要： | 结合我国九条高速公路连续一年的交通事故数据和车速数据,对速度的离散性与交通事故率的关系进行统计研究。研究表明,事故率与速度的离散性存在着明显的相关性。根据速度与事故率的散点分布,对其进行多种模型拟合,通过方差分析F值的显著性水平,以及判定系数R^2的修正、判断,得出事故率与车速标准差的指数分布模型,对高速公路的交通安全具有积极的意义。
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| 关 键 词： | 高速公路 事故率 回归分析 标准差 模型 |
Relationship between Speed Difference and Crash Rate on Freeway |
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| HOU Dian-jian,SUN Xiao-duan,HE Yu-long.Relationship between Speed Difference and Crash Rate on Freeway[J].Communications Standardization,2010(13):70-72. |
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| Authors: | HOU Dian-jian SUN Xiao-duan HE Yu-long |
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| Institution: | (Beijing Key Lab of Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China) |
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| Abstract: | It studies the relationship between speed difference and crash rate,using speed and accident data of nine freeway in China. Research shows that the accident rate has obvious correlation with the dispersion of speed. According to the accident rate and speed scatter distribution,several kinds of model are fitted,The significant level of F as well as R^2 are analyzed arriving at the index distribution model of accident rate and speed standard deviation. It is significant to guaranteeing the traffic safety on expressway. |
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| Keywords: | freeway accident rate regression analysis standard deviation model |
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