基于Nested Logit 模型的铁路旅客客运产品选择研究

通过成都-武汉既有线出行旅客的问卷调查，以及样本数据的归纳分析，对旅客客运产品选择行为特征进行描述.基于随机效用最大化理论，以乘车方式与客运产品作为选择肢，旅客主体、出行特性及列车服务特性的各项指标作为效用变量，构建了乘车方式位于上层、客运产品位于下层的Nested Logit 模型.模型的上下层参数标定结果表明，旅客的收入状况、出行目的、出行距离、列车票价及运行时间对其乘车方案选择具有显著影响，旅客的年龄、出行费用来源、收入状况、出行距离，以及列车票价、运行时间对其客运产品选择具有显著影响.模型能较为准确地反映铁路客运产品的实际需求，从而为其合理设计与调整提供理论依据.

Research of Transport Product Choice for Railway Passengers Based on Nested Logit Model

Through the questionnaire of Chengdu-Wuhan railway, together with the generalization of sample data, the feature of passengers boarding choice is described. Based on the maximum random utility theory, departure time and boarding mode are taken as alternative parts, and passenger characteristic, travel characteristic together with train service level are taken as utility variables. The Nested Logit model is built, with departure time locates in upper layer and boarding choice locates in lower layer. The demarcating result of regress parameter shows that boarding choice of passengers is greatly influenced by income, trip purpose, trip distance, train fares and running time. And transport product choice of passengers is greatly influenced by age, travel cost sources, income, trip distance, train fares and running time. This model can reflect the current situation of passenger transport product demand in this railway, theoretical basis for the legitimate design and adjustment.