The main determinants of the demand for public transport: a comparative analysis of England and France using shrinkage estimators |
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| Affiliation: | 1. ERMES (CNRS), University of Paris II, 12 place du Panthéon, 75230 Paris Cedex 05, France;2. ESRC Transport Studies Unit, Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK;3. INRETS-DEST, 2 avenue du General-Malleret Joinville, 94114 Arcueil Cedex, France;4. University of Valenciennes, Les Tertiales, Rue des cent têtes, 59313 Valenciennes Cedex 9, France;1. Industrial Engineering School, Universidad Diego Portales, Santiago, Chile;2. Department of Transport Engineering and Logistics, Centre for Sustainable Urban Development (CEDEUS), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Chile;1. Department of Urban Management, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan;2. Hitachi, Ltd., Research & Development Group, Global Center for Social Innovation, Tokyo, Japan;1. SYSTRA Ltd, 25th Floor, City Tower, Piccadilly Plaza, Manchester M1 4BT, United Kingdom;2. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;3. Transportøkonomisk institutt, Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway;1. Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalleen 21, 0349, Oslo, Norway;2. Monash University, Department of Civil Engineering, Clayton, Victoria, 3168, Australia;3. Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom;4. SYSTRA, Manchester, United Kingdom |
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| Abstract: | This study analyses the impacts of changes in fares, service supply, income and other factors on the demand for public transport on the basis of panels of English counties and French urban areas. The analysis is based on dynamic econometric models, so that both short- and long-run elasticities are estimated. Conventional approaches (i.e. fixed- and random-effect models) rely on the hypothesis that elasticities are the same for all areas. Having shown that this hypothesis is not valid for these data sets, the heterogeneity amongst areas is accounted for using a random-coefficients approach, and Bayesian shrinkage estimators.Estimated elasticities for France and England are compared, by using a common set of variables, similar time period and a common methodology. The results show a considerable variation in elasticities among areas within each country. The major conclusion is that public transport demand is relatively sensitive to fare changes, so that policy measures aimed at fare reduction (subsidisation) can play a substantial role in encouraging the use of public transport, thus reducing the use of private cars. |
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